🔗 Share this article

Things were simpler then. The fourth meeting of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A packed stadium, a scoreless tie, January 1964. Euphoria at full-time. Fans flooding the field to symbolize the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

After defeating three home nations, New Zealand had finally been halted in a Test.

A contemporary reporter was nearly overcome with excitement. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he announced excitedly and somewhat optimistically. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."

Leaving the stadium that evening, home supporters would have had hope for the future. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and no wins, but obvious indications that success might be imminent.

Three years later, New Zealand beat the Scots. Half a decade later, history repeated itself. Another three years passed, identical outcome. Another five-year gap and, indeed, the pattern continued.

Recent History

Two decades of matches later. Twenty All Black wins. From Christchurch to Dunedin, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - the landscapes have changed but results remain consistent.

In his time in the job, Gregor Townsend has ended losing runs in major European venues, but this is another level. This is 32 games across 120 years. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.

Team News

Over the past seasons the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have reduced to eight points, five points and eight points in recent encounters, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Through their brilliance, physical dominance, their chicanery, they secure victory.

We're now at the point of the week where positive expectations that supporters maintained for Scottish success is probably beginning to fade. Hope is colliding with history.

Missing Players

Thursday brought news that Fagerson was unavailable. For Scotland's hopes it was a significant setback.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's exceptional and if available then his absence from play would not have been too worrying.

During modern rugby long before the hour-mark, his endurance stands out. Unmatched playing time in the Six Nations.

Squad Depth

Another absence is Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with his club. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his Test career consists of limited game time.

And when Rae is finished, his replacement takes over. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, there's little to suggest that he's All Black-beating class.

Strategic Decisions

The coach has made unexpected selections, some logical, some puzzling. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, Rory Darge starting on the bench. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Past Encounters

Facing the Irish, New Zealand won the opening match of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They took an age to get going, despite numerical advantage, but their final surge secured victory.

Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, their attack, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

Statistical Analysis

Despite late-game surges, the last 20 minutes is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. Across international matches recently, they've accumulated scores in opening periods and 60 in the second half.

Strong opening performances, 48 in the second, 26 in the third and solid finishes. They start aggressively.

What Scotland Needs

During their last meeting, New Zealand scored early in the initial stages. Establishing early dominance, victory seemed assured. Scotland fought back impressively to dominate temporarily.

The lesson here is that, metaphorically, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from the start - and keep it there.

In recent years, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have required a points average in the upper twenties. Scotland have got into the 20s only occasionally against New Zealand.

Conclusion

Perfect execution is required for Townsend's team. Everything. If they start butchering chances early on then forget it. A yellow card? A high penalty count? A battered scrum? It's over.

With perfect execution? Explosive start. Vocal support. Bedlam. Ruthlessness. Russell being Russell. Graham being Graham.

Optimistic thinking, perhaps. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from the Scottish team that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If the capability exists, it's about time it came out; 120 years is enough of a wait.